DAVOS, Switzerland. A year ago, President Trump stood at this same forum and told OPEC to bring down the cost of oil. They laughed. Oil was trading at 0 a barrel. Today it is under 5. The EIA projects it will average 1 in 2026. Americans are paying .90 a gallon at the pump, a four-year low. GasBuddy forecasts the national average will fall below for the first time since 2020.
Nobody at Davos wants to talk about this. They want to talk about Trump's tone. His threats. His manners. They do not want to look at the scoreboard.
Energy Dominance Is Not a Slogan
US crude oil production hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day in July 2025. The country now produces as much natural gas as Russia, Iran, and China combined, at 108 billion cubic feet per day. LNG exports surged 25% year over year, shattering records with annual totals near 110 million metric tons. America exported more than 30% of its produced energy, cementing its status as the world's top oil and gas producer.
At Davos, Trump announced the administration is going heavy into nuclear and signed executive orders targeting 300 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity by 2030. This is not campaign rhetoric. The Stargate Project, a joint venture between OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, has its first data center operational in Abilene, Texas, with five more sites announced. The venture has committed over 00 billion in AI infrastructure investment, on track to hit 00 billion by 2029. These data centers need power. American energy is providing it.
The EIA projects Americans will spend 1 billion less at the gas pump in 2026 than they did in previous years. Household gas spending is expected to drop to ,083, down from ,716 in 2022. That is real money in real pockets.
NATO Is Finally Paying
For years, American taxpayers subsidized European defense while European governments spent on other priorities. Trump changed the terms. The results are measurable. NATO's average defense expenditure across all 32 member states reached 2.76% of GDP in 2025, up from the 2% target that most members failed to meet for decades. EU defense spending rose 11% year over year and 62.87% compared to 2020. EU defense investment hit a record 130 billion euros in 2025.
The June 2025 NATO summit agreed on a new target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035, with a combined goal of 5% including infrastructure. Germany adopted a constitutional reform making up to 500 billion euros available for defense. Poland is spending 4.48% of GDP. Estonia aims for 5% by 2026. France committed to 3.5%.
The Greenland situation accelerated this. Denmark committed 3.7 billion to Arctic defense, including .5 billion for F-35 fighter jets and .3 billion for anti-aircraft systems. NATO is now building a permanent Arctic mission modeled on Baltic Sentry. NATO Secretary General Rutte said the alliance will come together with senior commanders to work out what is necessary in early 2026. None of this was happening before Trump forced the issue.
The Leverage Game
Trump threatened tariffs on eight European nations. He cancelled them after getting what he wanted: a NATO Arctic security framework, European defense commitments, and a public acknowledgment from Rutte that Greenland defense needed urgent attention. The Dow dropped 870 points during the uncertainty. It surged 588 points after the resolution. The net result: NATO is spending more, the Arctic is being secured, and no tariffs were imposed.
Critics call this erratic. The alternative was the status quo: decades of polite requests that Europe pay its share, and decades of Europe ignoring them. Trump's approach is uncomfortable. It is also the only one that has produced results.
He threatened Canada with 100% tariffs over a potential China trade deal. Canada backed down. No tariffs needed. He told OPEC to lower oil prices. Oil is down 20%. He demanded rate cuts. The Fed cut three times in 2025, totaling 75 basis points. You can argue about causation. You cannot argue about the direction.
The Honest Cost
This approach has costs. Manufacturing employment has declined by 42,000 jobs since the April tariff announcements, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Companies cite uncertainty over tariff scope and duration as the reason they are not hiring. The average US tariff rate jumped from 2.5% to around 16.5% in 2025, and the Yale Budget Lab estimates tariffs will cost the average household roughly ,300 in 2026.
Q1 2025 GDP contracted 0.6%. It rebounded to 3.8% in Q2 and 4.4% in Q3, with the Atlanta Fed nowcasting 5.4% for Q4. The full year is expected to average around 2.3% growth. That is not a recession. But it is not smooth either.
The point is not that every decision has been perfect. The point is that the strategy is producing structural changes that previous administrations talked about and never delivered. NATO spending is up. Energy independence is real. Capital is flowing into American AI infrastructure. Oil prices are falling. These are measurable outcomes, not talking points.
What Davos Gets Wrong
The Davos establishment evaluates Trump on style. They count his contradictions, mock his word choices, and clutch pearls when he calls a Swiss president difficult. They measure success by diplomatic norms. Trump measures success by outcomes.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave what the commentators called a magisterial speech about the death of the old order. He is right that the old order is dead. But the old order was one where American workers paid for European defense, American consumers subsidized global oil prices, and American factories moved overseas while economists called it efficiency. That order deserved to die.
European Commission President von der Leyen said Europe must change permanently. Good. Germany is spending on defense for the first time since reunification. Denmark is investing in Greenland. The Arctic is being secured. These are changes that every previous American president asked for politely and never received.
Trump is not a diplomat. He is not smooth. He makes claims that do not hold up to fact-checking, and he personalizes disputes in ways that make career diplomats wince. But when the numbers come in, and the defense budgets get published, and the gas prices keep dropping, the question is not whether his style offends the Davos crowd. The question is whether the results justify the disruption.
Check the scoreboard. Then decide.
“If this change is permanent, then Europe must change permanently, too.”
— Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President